I originally wrote and released a version of this article in September 2016. Since then, something has happened that reinforces my view that these changes are coming and will have a greater impact. I decided it was time to update this article, with some additional ideas and changes.
When I wrote this, Uber just announced that it had ordered only 24,000 autonomous Volvo cars. Tesla has just released an electric long-distance tractor trailer with special technical specifications (range, performance) and autonomous driving capability (UPS only ordered 125!). . More important, tesla has just announced that it may be the fastest mass-produced car ever – perhaps the fastest. When you read zero to sixty, it becomes zero to sixty. Of course, it can drive itself. The future is fast becoming the present. GuGe has just ordered thousands of Chrysler autonomous cars (already on Arizona’s roads).
In September 2016, has just launched the first taxi Pittsburgh, tesla and Mercedes has launched a limited driving ability, cities around the world want to self-driving cars, the company is in talks to truck to their city. Since then, all the major car companies have announced to take most or all of the main measures of electric vehicles, self-driving cars increased investment, driverless trucks now seems to be in a leading position, rather than the first large-scale implementation, there are some events (accident).
I believe that with the rapid development of technology and the increasing interest and investment of the freight industry, the time to adopt this technology has been greatly reduced in the past year.
I believe my daughter is only one year old now and has never learned to drive or own a car.
The impact of driverless cars will be profound and will affect almost every part of our lives.
Here’s my view of the future of drones. Some of these updates came from my original post feedback (thanks to contributors!!! ), some of which are based on technological advances over the past year, others are just my own predictions.
What happens when cars and trucks drive?
People don’t own their cars. The vehicle will act as a company with autonomous vehicles. “Transportation is a service” has so many technological, economic and security advantages that it can change much faster than most people expect. Owning a car as a person will become a novice collector and competitor.
As Uber, Google, amazon and others move shipping to pay for services, software/technology companies will have more of the world economy. Software does eat the world. Over time, they will have a lot of data on people, patterns, routes, and barriers, and new entrants will have huge barriers to entry.
3. If there is no government intervention (or some kind of organized sports), there will be a lot of software, the battery/power manufacturing, vehicle maintenance and charge/power/infrastructure maintenance personnel get wealth transfer. As scale and efficiency become more valuable, there will be a large number of companies serving these markets. Cars (perhaps they’ll rename them with clever abbreviations) will run Internet routers – most consumers don’t know or care who makes them or who owns them.
4. Vehicle design will fundamentally change – without the need to inherit the collision in the same way, all cars will be electric (= + + all software service providers will operate autonomously). They may look different, have very different shapes and sizes, and in some cases they may connect to each other. In materials used in automobile manufacture – for example, there may be many major innovation by very different tyre and brake to be sent to you, especially in the load variability and more in a controlled environment. The fuselage can be made mainly of composite materials (such as carbon fiber and glass fiber) and 3D printing. Without driver control, electric cars would require a tenth or fewer parts (perhaps even a hundred), so production would be faster and would require less labor.
5. The vehicle will mainly replace the battery, instead of charging the battery as the host. The battery will be charged in a distributed and highly optimized center – possibly with the same company owning a vehicle or other national supplier. There may be some entrepreneurial opportunities and a market for battery charging and switching, but the industry could quickly consolidate. The battery will be replaced without human intervention – which may pass when washing the car.
6. The vehicle (electricity) will be able to provide portable power for various purposes (and will also be sold as a service) – construction sites (why generators), disaster/power failures, events, etc. They may even temporarily or permanently change the remote locations of the distribution network (such as power lines) – imagine distributed distribution networks and automated cars at some stations offering “last mile” services
Driving licences will gradually disappear, as will most state drivers. Since people no longer have driver’s licenses, there may be other forms of identification. This may correspond to the inevitable digitization of all personal identification-by printing, retinal scanning, or other biological scanning.
8. There is no parking space or parking space in the road or building. The garage will be reused – possibly as personnel and delivery of small loading and unloading terminals. As parking Spaces and parking Spaces disappear, the beauty of residential and commercial buildings will change. As these Spaces are available, there will be years of landscaping, basement and garage conversion.
Traffic regulations will become redundant. Police transport can also change a lot. Driverless cars may become more common, and police may use commercial vehicles. This may significantly change the nature of policing, lack of new resources for traffic control and significantly reduce time.
There will be no more local artisans, car dealers, consumer car washes, auto parts stores or gas stations. Towns built around major streets will change or disappear.
We know that the auto insurance industry will disappear (key investment capacity of key players in the industry will disappear). Most car companies will be shut down, and most of their supplier networks will be shut down. The net number of vehicles on the road will be much lower (perhaps by a tenth or less), making them more durable, less spare and more commoditized.
Traffic lights and signs will go out. Cars don’t even have headlights because infrared and radar have replaced the human spectrum. The relationship between pedestrians (and bicycles) and cars and trucks can change dramatically. Some people come in the form of cultural and behavioral changes, because people travel a lot, and walking or cycling is possible in places that are not available today.
13. Multimodal transport will be a more integrated and normal part of our campaign. In other words, we often replace one type of vehicle with one type of vehicle, especially when driving long distances. Through coordination and integration, the combination of transportation becomes more efficient by eliminating parking and more definite patterns.
The grid will change. Power stations that replace energy will become more competitive and local. As solar panels, small tidal wave or generators, wind turbines and other local electricity consumers and small businesses will be able to sell the company who owns the vehicle KiloWattHours. This would change the “net measurement” rule and could damage the overall power transmission model. It may even be the beginning of the creation and transportation of truly distributed electricity. Innovation in electricity production and delivery models is likely to increase substantially. Over time, ownership of these services can be integrated into a small number of companies.
15. The traditional petroleum products (and other fossil fuels) will become less valuable, because the electric car instead of fuel cars, and with the strength of mobile (a lot of power transmission and transformation requirements), alternative energy sources become more feasible. This potential shift has much to do with geopolitics. These trends are likely to accelerate as the effects of climate change become clearer and clearer. Oil will continue to be valuable for making plastics and other derivatives, but not on any scale. Many companies, oil-rich countries and investors have begun to adapt.
As the car industry’s advertising spending disappears, entertainment money will change. Think about how many ads you’ve seen or heard about cars, auto financing, auto insurance, auto parts, and car dealers. Great changes in the transport industry may lead to many other structural and cultural changes. We will stop talking about “turning into high gear” and other driving-related spoken English, as these references will be lost in future generations.
17. “according to the latest fiscal year 2018 budget resolution at the same time, the second and the fifth section provides regulation bill” business tax will be reduced by accelerating self-driving cars and other forms of transportation investment automation automation. As new cash and incentives are invested quickly, many companies will invest in technology and solutions to reduce their labor costs.
18. The automotive finance industry will disappear, and the large new derivatives market for packaging subprime loans will disappear, which may lead to the financial crisis of 2008-2009.
19. Unemployment is rising, student loans are rising, and defaults on cars and other debt could plunge into a full-blown depression. On the other hand, the emergence of the world may be more pronounced in terms of income and wealth stratification, since the entire supply chain of transport-related entry-level jobs and existing transport systems will disappear. In the production and service delivery (artificial intelligence, robot technology, low cost, business integration, etc.) in the super automation integration may forever change the way of social organization and how people spend their time.