I originally wrote and published a version of this article in September 2016. Since then, something has happened that reinforces my view that these changes are coming, and that the impact will be even greater. I decided it was time to update this article, with some additional ideas and some changes.
When I wrote this, Uber just announced that it had ordered only 24,000 autonomous Volvo cars. Tesla has just released an electric long-distance tractor trailer with a special technical specification (range, performance) and autonomous driving capability (UPS has ordered only 125 in advance!) . What’s more, tesla has just announced what could be the fastest production car ever – perhaps the fastest. In the time you read between zero and sixty, it becomes zero to sixty. Of course, it can drive itself. The future is fast becoming the present. GuGe has just ordered thousands of Chrysler autonomous vehicles (already on the Arizona road).
In September 2016, already has just launched its first driving a taxi Pittsburgh, tesla and Mercedes have launched a limited driving ability and the cities around the world who want to self-driving cars and the company is negotiating to truck to their city. Since then, all the major car companies have announced major measures taken most or all of the electric vehicle, the autonomous vehicle investment increases, the driverless trucks now seems to be in a leading position, rather than following the first large-scale implementation, there are some events (the accident).
I believe that with the rapid development of technology and the improvement of interest and investment level in the freight industry, the time of large-scale adoption of this technology has been shortened in the past year.
I believe my daughter is now only one year old and never has to learn to drive or own a car.
The impact of driverless cars will be profound and will affect almost every part of our lives.
Here are my thoughts on the future of unmanned aircraft in the future. Some of these updates came from my original article feedback (thanks to contributors!!! ), some of which are based on technical advances over the past year, and other updates are just my own projections.
What happens when cars and trucks drive?
People don’t own their cars. The vehicle will serve as a company with a fleet of self-driving vehicles. “Transport is a service” has so much technology, economic and security advantages that it is likely to change much faster than most people expect. Owning a car as a person will be a novice collector and competitor.
2. With Uber, Google, amazon and other companies shifting transportation to pay-as-a-service, software/technology companies will have more of the world economy. Software does eat the world. Over time, they will have a lot of data about people, patterns, routes and barriers, and new entrants will have huge barriers to entry.
3. If there is no government intervention (or some sort of organized sports), there will be a great number of software, the battery/power manufacturing, vehicle maintenance and charge/power/maintenance of infrastructure people get wealth transfer. Because scale and efficiency will become more valuable, there will be a large number of companies providing services to these markets. Car (maybe they will in some clever acronym to rename) will be running the Internet router – most consumers don’t know or care who manufacture them or who owns them.
4. Vehicles design will radically change – do not need to be in the same way inherit the collision, all cars will be electric (= + + software service providers all electric automatic driving). They may look different, shapes and sizes are very different, and in some cases they may be attached to each other. In materials used in vehicle manufacturing – for example, there may be many major innovation tyre and brake will be sent to you by very different assumptions to optimization, especially in the variability of load and more controlled environment. The fuselage may be made primarily of composite materials (such as carbon fiber and fiberglass) and 3D printing. Without a driver’s control, an electric car would need a tenth or less of the parts (and maybe even a hundred), so production would be faster and require less labor.
5. The vehicle will mainly replace the battery, rather than as the host to charge the battery. The battery will be charged at a distributed and highly optimized center – possibly with the same company owning a vehicle or another national supplier. There may be some entrepreneurial opportunities and battery charging and exchange markets, but the industry is likely to integrate quickly. The battery will be replaced without human intervention – which may be passed in the car wash.
6. Vehicles (electric power) will be able to provide portable power for various purposes (and will also be sold as a service) – construction site (why generator), disaster/power failure, events, etc. They may even temporarily or permanently replace the remote location of the distribution network (such as power line) – imagine the distributed generation network and automatic vehicle for some sites offer “last mile” service
The driver’s license will gradually disappear, as will most state motorists. Since people no longer hold driving licences, other forms of identification are likely. This may correspond to the inevitable digitization of all personal identification – by printing, retinal scanning or other biological scans.
8. There are no parking Spaces or parking Spaces in roads or buildings. The garage will be re-used – possibly as a small loading dock for people and delivery. As parking and parking Spaces disappear, the aesthetics of residential and commercial buildings will change. As these Spaces are available, there will be years of landscaping, basement and garage conversion.
Traffic regulation will become redundant. Police transport can also change a lot. Driverless cars may become more common, and police officers may use commercial means of transport. This could significantly change the nature of policing, lack of new resources for traffic control and a significant reduction in time.
10. There will be no more local artisans, car dealers, consumers washing cars, auto parts stores or gas stations. Towns built around major streets will change or disappear.
The auto insurance industry, as we know it, will disappear (and the key investment capabilities of the industry’s main players will disappear). Most car companies will be shut down, and most of their vast network of suppliers will be closed. Net vehicles on the road will be reduced by a lot (maybe a tenth or less), and these vehicles will be more durable, less parts and more commoditized.
Traffic lights and signs will be out of date. Because infrared and radar have replaced the human spectrum, cars do not even have headlights. The relationship between pedestrians (and bicycles) and cars and trucks may change dramatically. Some people will appear in the form of cultural and behavioral change, as people travel more often, and walking or cycling is feasible in places that are not today.
13. Multimodal transport will be a more integrated and normal part of our movement. In other words, we often replace one type of vehicle with another type of vehicle, especially on a long drive. By coordinating and integrating, removing parking and more deterministic patterns, the combination of transportation will become more efficient.
The grid will change. Power stations that replace energy will become more competitive and local. With solar panels, small tidal waves or generator, windmills and other local electricity consumers and small businesses will be able to sell the company who owns the vehicle KiloWattHours. This would change the “net measurement” rule and could disrupt the overall power delivery model. It may even become the beginning of truly distributed power creation and transportation. There may be a significant upsurge in innovation in power production and delivery patterns. Over time, ownership of these services could be integrated into very few companies.
15. The traditional petroleum products (and other fossil fuels) will become less valuable, because the electric car to replace the fuel vehicles, and with the power of mobility (a lot of power transmission and transformation needs), alternative energy sources become more feasible. This possible shift has a lot to do with geopolitics. These trends are likely to accelerate as the impact of climate change becomes clearer and clearer. Oil will continue to be valuable for making plastics and other derivative materials, but not on any scale. Many companies, oil-rich countries and investors have begun to adapt.
As advertising spending in the auto industry disappears, entertainment money will change. Think about how many ads you see or hear about cars, auto financing, auto insurance, auto parts and car dealers. The great changes in the transportation industry may lead to many other structural and cultural changes. We will stop talking about “turning into high gear” and other driving related oral English, because these references will be lost in future generations.
17. The latest “according to the 2018 fiscal year budget resolution at the same time the second and the fifth part provide regulation bill” corporate tax rate decrease will accelerate investment in self-driving cars and other automation automation and other forms of transport. With new cash and incentives to invest capital quickly, many companies will invest in technology and solutions to reduce their Labour costs.
18. The auto financing industry will disappear, and the new large derivatives market for packaged subprime loans will disappear, which could have led to the financial crisis of 2008-2009.
19. Unemployment is rising, student loans are rising, and car and other debt defaults are likely to plunge into a full-blown depression. On the other hand, the emergence of the world may be more dramatic in income and wealth stratification, because the entry-level jobs associated with transportation and the entire supply chain of existing transport systems will disappear. This superautomation fusion in production and service delivery (AI, robotics, low-cost computing, business integration, etc.) may permanently change the way society is organized and how people spend their time.