In the 1990s, “We’re so close and far apart” that in the 1990s, legendary rock duo Hall and Oates talked about love. Driverless cars are then science fiction, but now despite the large investment and exaggeration, autonomous vehicles will not be with us.
The problem is that, despite the enormous achievements made by autonomous technologies, the last percentage point to 100% reliability is hard to come by. Other, more general hurdles like regulation, insurance, legal liability, and the almost impossible moral and ethical decisions that an automobile’s AI system needs to take in the event of an accident lay off pensioners or sacrifice themselves to the wall .
May GM trip over? After San Francisco recently experimented with Chevrolet bolt cruise autonomy, the automaker has launched its own taxi fleet with 2019 as its target date. Unless some unexpected explosives are available at the CES show in Las Vegas next week, the first publicly available crowd of autonomous vehicles may take at least 15 years.
Some people think that autonomous talk is very hot air.
“Let’s face it: we’re talking about a technology that’s never happened,” Christian Wolmar said in this issue of The Observer.
Wolmar is a British writer and transport expert.
Wolmar said in an interview: “There may be some driverless cars that fly around Phoenix (Arizona) in a very limited way, but Waymo, owner of Google, is secretive about what they’re doing.
“Automakers are hyped and desperate to declare the future that tech giants have all these overwhelming capital, which Walmar says is the same as the jet packs used in the 1960s cartoons.
Car makers beg for differences because they spend the perfect computer car, and experts such as Robin Zhu, an analyst at Bernstein Research, think autonomous cars (AVs) are getting very close.
“Although the AV technology is still a huge uncertainty, but we think the breakthrough may be faster than expected,” Hong Kong Zhu said.
“The United States may take the first commercial take-off – impressed us by the progress made by Waymo and GM Cruise in the long run, although we believe that China can represent one, if not most promising market in the area of counter-proliferation Zhu Rongji said that the country is large and mainly populated by cities.
Hong Kong is certainly part of China. Premier Zhu sounds very optimistic, but did not put forward the actual start date. Investment researcher Evercore ISI took a more step-by-step approach to autonomous vehicles and focused on the middle stage of total control. Level 5 is El Dorado’s complete, letting go, sleeping or reading totally autobiographical book. Evercore pointed out that this level may prove to be illusory, but Level 3 is more readily available and is currently being introduced to the market.
(Level 1 is where the pilot controls almost anything, but can summon adaptive cruise control, slowing the car when it is in front of a slower car and accelerating again as it passes. Allowing the computer to intervene Avoid accidents caused by brake or nudge of the steering wheel; Level 3 allows the computer to manage most aspects of driving and prompts the driver to intervene in the event of a problem; also deal with the problem of slow traffic in a town. It must be possible to take over at any time; At the fourth level, the computer operates the vehicle, but only under the conditions defined by the type of road or geographical area; in a private car, the driver can manage all the driving tasks on an urban street and then become one when the car enters the freeway Passenger.
Evercore ISI believes the competition for bringing Class 3 cars to the market will be won by Germans.
“Germany’s timetable seems to be 1-2 years behind Silicon Valley, but in our assessment, Germans could beat the West Coast with a viable product that consumers really want – the L3 + Highway.” Everscore ISI analyst Chris ? In an Autonomous report, Chris McNally said: “Most of this is a failure, only investors think autonomy is completely autonomy, and we think it may be involved “Smoke and mirrors” related to robot media and experimentation from German thinking. ”
Evercore ISI believes the Audi A8 will be the first car to offer L3 functionality. This may happen in 2018, but first the German government must approve it. Evercore said the technical rules in the United States would initially be self-regulating and the precedent of the court set the tone.
“Over time, it may shift to a regulatory-driven market, but only after the first or second autonomy,” McNally said.