The U.S. auto industry has a chance to shed its boom-bust cycle, which it has experienced for most of the last century, in which it has been an important part of the economy. And that breakthrough could start in 2018.
And decades later this year, in the next few years the elasticity of car sales will depend on the unprecedented factors, including automatic driving and the progress of electric propulsion, and traditional decision factors, such as the comprehensive strength of the consumer economy, gas prices and interest rates.
For now, the domestic industry is still buzzing, and any player would be wise to welcome it. New car sales fell 2 per cent in 2017 to 17.1 million units, according to figures reported by individual carmakers on Wednesday. It was the first year-on-year decline since 2007 and ended a historic seven-year expansion.
But sales fell by only a percentage point in 2017, and remained the sixth-largest car sales year in U.S. history last year. And, more importantly, a series of factors showed that the U.S. auto market may be able to avoid like the early 70 s and early 80 s, car sales in the recession of the country of the cyclical downturn – or at least substantially and economic disaster, such as the great recession began in 2008.
Economists and analysts’ consensus was that in 2018, U.S. sales fall modestly again, from low single-digit percentage in 2017, down by several factors: interest rates rise, late rent cars, new car “pent-up demand” disappear, promote the industry seven years most of the time.
The national automobile dealers association, for example, predicts sales of 16.7 million vehicles in 2018, down about 2 percent.
“It’s not worth worrying about,” Patrick Manzi, senior economist at NADA, told me. “It’s still the top 10 for new car sales.”
U.S. auto sales this year just slow slow, accelerating economic growth, the petrol price rationalization, employment and Labour market participation rate rise, consumer confidence is strong and wages and income rose. Even before the Trumpian tax cuts coming out this year, some additional downwind should be offered for profit and sales.
Cox car company (Cox Automotive) chief economist Jonathan nutter (Jonathan Smoke), said: “most families through tax reform have extra spending power will cause consumers to purchase consumers continue to” rise “. “At the very least, increased real wages will help mitigate the impact of high interest rates on the ability of most households to pay monthly.”
In the short term, carmakers’ profitability will be hit by a series of offsetting factors. On the other hand, U.S. consumers tend to have a lower rate of growth in commercial vehicles and pickup trucks and away from cars. Both general motors and fiat Chrysler are planning a giant version of the high-profit pickup truck that will help boost overall industry profits.
But the negative side, auto makers must constantly provide increased financial incentives, in order to maintain sales smoothly, especially the interest rate on the fed plans in 2018 to reflect three gears increase plan.
It looks more than 2018. It’s really interesting. Some analysts believe that after the slide in U.S. sales accelerated in this year, mainly due to cyclical factors, and the profit pattern in the United States and the global economy today at some point will inevitably become bad.
The distribution of access to the market will increase the market share of electric vehicles, as well as the impact of autonomous driving systems and vehicles on new-car sales and types.